29 April 2018

"The estimates suggest that 14% of jobs in OECD countries (...) are at high risk (probability of over 70%) of being automated based on current technological possibilities. An additional 32% of jobs have a probability of being automated between 50% and 70% and could face significant changes in their job content. (...) In general, jobs in Anglo-Saxon, Nordic countries and the Netherlands are less automatable than jobs in Eastern European countries, South European countries, Germany, Chile and Japan. (...)

The risk of automation declines with the level of education, with the level of measured skills (...) and with the wage level across almost all countries, suggesting that this wave of automation is skill biased. On the other hand, AI appears to affect low-skilled jobs more significantly than previous waves of automation. Another notable finding is that the risk of automation peaks among teen jobs. More precisely, the relationship between the risk of automation and age is U-shaped. The highest automatability is found among jobs held by youth. The risk then declines to reach its lowest value at age 30-35 and then gradually increases again. (...) These results suggest that automation may have more implications for youth unemployment policies than for early retirement policies. The warnings in some developed countries that teen jobs have been harder to come by in recent years should be taken seriously and studied in the context of job automatio" (“Automation, skills use and training”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers)

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